Gaming
EA FC / FIFA Pack Probability Calculator
Pulling a walkout / top player is a series of independent chances. Enter the drop rate and how many you will open to see your real probability of getting at least one — and how many openings it usually takes.
How loot-box probability works
Each opening is an independent chance, so the odds don't simply add up. To get the probability of at least one walkout / top player, you flip the question around and calculate the chance of getting none, then subtract from 1:
P(at least one) = 1 − (1 − p)n
Here p is the drop rate per opening and n is how many you open. This is exact math — the only assumption is that openings are independent (no pity or "bad-luck protection").
Expected openings vs. a guarantee
On average it takes 1 ÷ p openings to hit one walkout / top player. That's an average, not a promise: half the time you'll do better, half the time worse. To express real confidence, look at the 90% and 99% thresholds the calculator shows — the number of openings that make a walkout / top player almost certain.
Worked example
At a 1% drop rate, opening 10 gives you about a 9.6% chance of at least one walkout / top player. On average a walkout / top player takes around 100 openings, and you'd need roughly 230 openings to reach a 90% chance. Change the rate or count above to model your own case.
Why a dry streak doesn't “owe” you
Without a pity system, the box has no memory. After 50 openings with nothing, opening number 51 still has the same 1% chance as the first. This is the gambler's fallacy — feeling "due" for a drop. Cumulative odds rise with more openings, but any single opening never improves on its own.
How to use this calculator
- Enter the drop rate. The published or estimated chance per opening to get a walkout / top player, as a percentage.
- Enter the number of openings. How many boxes, cases or packs you plan to open.
- Read your real odds. See the chance of at least one walkout / top player, the average openings one takes, and how many you'd need for 90% and 99% confidence.
For a generic version, see the loot box probability calculator, or explore more gaming tools.
Frequently asked questions
How is the probability calculated?
The chance of getting at least one is 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ, where p is the drop rate and n is the number of openings. Each opening is independent — past misses do not improve future odds unless the game has a pity system.
What does 'expected openings' mean?
On average you need 1 ÷ p openings to get one item. It is an average — you may get lucky much sooner or unlucky much later.
Can I guarantee a walkout / top player with enough openings?
Not unless the game has a pity system. More openings push your probability ever closer to 100% but never reach an absolute guarantee. The calculator's 99% threshold is the practical "almost certain" point.
Where do I find the real drop rate?
Many games and regions legally disclose loot-box odds in-game or on official sites. Use those published figures for an accurate result; community-tested estimates also work if official numbers aren't available.