Gaming
Pokémon TCG Pack Pull Calculator
Pulling a rare card is a series of independent chances. Enter the drop rate and how many you will open to see your real probability of getting at least one — and how many openings it usually takes.
How loot-box probability works
Each opening is an independent chance, so the odds don't simply add up. To get the probability of at least one rare card, you flip the question around and calculate the chance of getting none, then subtract from 1:
P(at least one) = 1 − (1 − p)n
Here p is the drop rate per opening and n is how many you open. This is exact math — the only assumption is that openings are independent (no pity or "bad-luck protection").
Expected openings vs. a guarantee
On average it takes 1 ÷ p openings to hit one rare card. That's an average, not a promise: half the time you'll do better, half the time worse. To express real confidence, look at the 90% and 99% thresholds the calculator shows — the number of openings that make a rare card almost certain.
Worked example
At a 8% drop rate, opening 10 gives you about a 56.6% chance of at least one rare card. On average a rare card takes around 12.5 openings, and you'd need roughly 28 openings to reach a 90% chance. Change the rate or count above to model your own case.
Why a dry streak doesn't “owe” you
Without a pity system, the box has no memory. After 50 openings with nothing, opening number 51 still has the same 8% chance as the first. This is the gambler's fallacy — feeling "due" for a drop. Cumulative odds rise with more openings, but any single opening never improves on its own.
How to use this calculator
- Enter the drop rate. The published or estimated chance per opening to get a rare card, as a percentage.
- Enter the number of openings. How many boxes, cases or packs you plan to open.
- Read your real odds. See the chance of at least one rare card, the average openings one takes, and how many you'd need for 90% and 99% confidence.
For a generic version, see the loot box probability calculator, or explore more gaming tools.
Frequently asked questions
How is the probability calculated?
The chance of getting at least one is 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ, where p is the drop rate and n is the number of openings. Each opening is independent — past misses do not improve future odds unless the game has a pity system.
What does 'expected openings' mean?
On average you need 1 ÷ p openings to get one item. It is an average — you may get lucky much sooner or unlucky much later.
Can I guarantee a rare card with enough openings?
Not unless the game has a pity system. More openings push your probability ever closer to 100% but never reach an absolute guarantee. The calculator's 99% threshold is the practical "almost certain" point.
Where do I find the real drop rate?
Many games and regions legally disclose loot-box odds in-game or on official sites. Use those published figures for an accurate result; community-tested estimates also work if official numbers aren't available.